Description: In this continuation of our July 2013 article we explore an algorithm for evaluating Hidden Markov Models in detail. A preferred method in speech recognition technology, Hidden Markov Models are a promising technique when dealing with data you suspect may be driven by a change in a unobservable state. The example in the article is provided in an Excel workbook for the reader to follow along with.

Description: In this article the author introduces a new column, Cool Tech, which will provide information each quarter about open-source software and projects from the web.

Description: This paper reviews state and federal regulation of investment advisers as it applies to personal actuaries and advocates action steps.

Description: Discusses a method to construct an endowment plan which provides for a maturity value greater than face by treating the paid up amount as the sum insured whenever it exceeds face. The formulas for premiums, cash values and amount of insurance are provided.

Description: This paper considers the problem of actuaries acting as advisers to individuals. This activity is covered by regulations, discussed in the paper, that currently recognize other professions but not actuaries. The paper recommends that actuarial organizations lobby the relevant legislative and regulatory bodies to provide actuaries pursuing an investment-focused career path with the same exemption status as other professionals.

Description: The article introduces the concept of overfitting in predictive modeling and illustrates how it hinders our ability to predict new data well.

Description: By necessity, attributions of financial processes require approximations. Tools used for approximations include Aumann-Shapley, time step, step-through, average step-through, partial derivative, and average partial derivative. Significantly non-linear paths can cause problems during attribution. Time (theta) and market factors must be handled concurrently. Typically contractual factors can be handled separately. Average Step-Through, Aumann-Shapley and Aumann-Shapley-3 points perform the best given the same time period. Attribution should be done with fairly small time steps as opposed to using a lot of points in the Aumann-Shapley calculation, but using Aumann-Shapley-3 points as a last step has some advantages.

Description: A Discussion of why female mortality is higher than male mortality at higher ages.

Description: discussion of a new product idea for retirement planning which integrates a variety of needs estate death benefit, annuity income, disability income, etc. into one product